Tariff Wednesday” Incoming – Can Bulls Hold Their Ground? ES & NQ Game Plan for April 2nd
Tuesday, April 1st, 2025
Monday’s Recovery Was Real — But It’s No Victory Lap Yet.
After Friday’s flush into the 5535–5565 demand zone, Monday delivered exactly what we outlined — a clean bounce right off 5600. But before anyone throws confetti, let’s remember where that bounce stopped: right at the former support now turned resistance at 5670–5680.
It’s not a breakout until we clear that 5700+ zone and hold. Until then, every pop is just a chance to reset shorts.
Now the real event risk? Wednesday = “Tariff Day.” The administration is expected to make announcements around tariffs that could move markets big time. Add to that this week’s packed economic calendar — JOLTS, ISM, payrolls — and we’re staring at a potential volatility minefield.
🧠 Market Context Breakdown
ES (S&P 500 Futures):
Support: 5560 (March 13th low) held again Monday — a double bottom in the making?
Resistance: 5670–5680 is the key rejection zone. Above that, 5705–5720 is major resistance.
Chart shows a possible failed breakdown pattern forming — but needs follow-through.
NQ (Nasdaq Futures):
Support: 19050–19100 holding for now.
Resistance: 19450–19500 zone must be reclaimed before bulls can relax.
SPY/QQQ:
SPY bounced from just above 549 support — now testing Friday’s low at 563–564.
QQQ also recovering but still beneath key resistance around 480.50–482.60.
VIX/UVXY:
UVXY spiked to 30 during the mid-March selloff, today it’s hanging around 25. That’s not a capitulation low yet.
It tells us fear is elevated — but not maxed. We may need another flush to shake the tree.
⚖️ Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
Bullish Case:
Hold above Monday’s low (5600 ES) and break through 5670–5700 with volume.
Look for failed breakdown confirmation.
Watch if 10AM data surprise to the upside or Tariff news comes in softer-than-expected.
Bearish Case:
Reject at Monday high / Friday low (key area = 5675–5685 ES).
Breakdown below 5600 opens up 5550 again.
Watch for UVXY/VIX spike — a sign of incoming panic sell.
🛠️ Trade Prep
Heading into Wednesday, patience is the name of the game. We’ve had the bounce. Now we need confirmation. If ES reclaims and holds 5705, bulls may get a real breakout. If not — be ready for another rug pull.
Economic Data to Watch:
Tuesday: ISM, JOLTS, Construction Spending (10:00 AM)
Wednesday: Tariff Announcement, PMI
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings
📌 Check out our Free Resources on the homepage to learn how to read these levels and build your own game plan.
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Risk Disclaimer
Disclosure:
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions
Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.