Monday Market Context – June 24, 2025
Geopolitical Shock vs. Market Strength: A Story of Immediate Recovery
Sunday evening brought uncertainty, tension, and a hard gap down across global markets—sparked by a new wave of geopolitical risk. Futures plunged on the open, with ES and NQ both selling off sharply.
But what happened next is what defines this week’s opening tone:
The market recovered every inch of that gap before the bell. As of this morning, we’re trading nearly flat to Friday’s close.
This kind of resilience, in the face of fear, is not accidental—it’s structural.
📊 The Technical Setup:
We are back inside Friday’s range—suggesting that despite external volatility, buyers are still in control.
Let’s break down the key inflection points on ES:
🔑 Levels to Watch on ES:
6040 → Breakout Level
This is today’s battleground. If the bulls can reclaim and hold above this level, the market may resume its upside momentum toward retesting swing highs.6020 → Mid-Range Checkpoint
This area is key for intraday balance. If the market fails here with volume, sellers may reclaim initiative.6000 → Psychological Pivot
Round number, demand zone, and price memory—all in one. If we lose this, momentum shifts.5980 → Major Support
This is the line in the sand for bulls. Below it, the structure begins to deteriorate.
What This Means Structurally:
We’re watching a classic compression-and-expansion scenario unfold.
The daily trend remains bullish, with higher lows intact.
On the intraday timeframe, however, we’re seeing a series of hesitation candles and indecision bars—signs of growing tension.
Today’s session could either confirm strength with a breakout above 6040 or signal a shift toward downside control if 6020/6000 breaks.
Strategic Plan for Today:
Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout Above 6040:
Look for clean consolidation above this level before entering long. Ideal confirmation would come via a volume-supported breakout with follow-through toward 6060 and potentially 6080 later this week.
Scenario 2 – Breakdown Under 6020:
Watch for a fail-and-reject at 6020. If price slips and cannot reclaim, a test of 6000 becomes likely. Below 6000, aggressive sellers may target 5980s swiftly.
Scenario 3 – Range Day (Low Vol / Inside Day):
If price stays between 6020 and 6040, today may be a range day. Expect slower rotations and fading strategies to work best in that case.
🧭 Broader Context: Geopolitics + Structural Strength
This market is climbing a wall of worry—and doing so efficiently. The sharp Sunday sell-off was met with confident buying, showing that dip demand remains intact.
The biggest takeaway?
📌 Resilience in fear = hidden strength.
But don’t get comfortable—a volatile headline or failed level can flip this structure fast.
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Final Thoughts:
Markets don't care about headlines—they care about structure.
6040 is the top. 6000 is the floor.
Whichever breaks will define the week ahead.
Let price lead. Let structure speak. And let the market show you the way.
🧠 Shawn from Smart Traders Capital
Live every morning at 9 AM ET