May 1st Market Context & Game Plan: New Month, Big Gap — What’s Next?

Morning Overview

After a strong close into month-end, the markets gapped up aggressively overnight. Futures are flashing green across the board:

• SPY up +1.1%

• QQQ up +1.7%

• ES Futures retesting the 5700 level

• NQ Futures pushing toward 19,700

That’s a huge move — nearly 160+ points on ES and 400+ points on NQ from the prior session lows.

So… what’s next?

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Key Scenarios to Prepare For

Scenario 1: Gap and Go (Bullish Continuation)

If the market holds above key intraday support zones — particularly ES 5630–5650 and NQ 19,900 we could see a continuation squeeze.

In this case:

• ES 5730–5750 becomes the next magnet

• NQ 20,000+ is in reach if momentum sustains

This is a strong trend day scenario — but only if we hold key support zones after the open.

Scenario 2: Gap Fill Reversal

Big gaps often lead to profit-taking or trap longs. If we lose ES 5630 or NQ 19,300, watch for sharp mean-reversion plays.

• ES 5600 is the line in the sand

• Below that, we’re likely heading to retest 5540 — yesterday’s key breakout level

Same for NQ — a failed breakout may bring us back to 19,000

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Market Cues

• First 15–30 minutes will be key — volume and structure matter more than the open print

• VWAP hold vs. breakdown could signal the move

• Keep an eye on sector strength (tech leading or lagging?)

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Mindset Tip

New month. Clean slate.
The last few weeks have been filled with noise — from tariffs to rate expectations to earnings. Don’t bring April's emotions into May.

Start fresh. Let price speak.

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Final Thought

Big gaps can be gifts or traps — depending on your reaction.

Let price confirm. Don’t chase.

We’ve mapped the structure. You now have the edge.

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Let’s trade smart today.

— Shawn

– Shawn

Disclosure

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions

Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.