Morning Overview
After a strong close into month-end, the markets gapped up aggressively overnight. Futures are flashing green across the board:
SPY up +1.1%
QQQ up +1.7%
ES Futures retesting the 5700 level
NQ Futures pushing toward 19,700
That’s a huge move — nearly 160+ points on ES and 400+ points on NQ from the prior session lows.
So… what’s next?
Key Scenarios to Prepare For
Scenario 1: Gap and Go (Bullish Continuation)
If the market holds above key intraday support zones — particularly ES 5630–5650 and NQ 19,900 we could see a continuation squeeze.
In this case:
ES 5730–5750 becomes the next magnet
NQ 20,000+ is in reach if momentum sustains
This is a strong trend day scenario — but only if we hold key support zones after the open.
Scenario 2: Gap Fill Reversal
Big gaps often lead to profit-taking or trap longs. If we lose ES 5630 or NQ 19,300, watch for sharp mean-reversion plays.
ES 5600 is the line in the sand
Below that, we’re likely heading to retest 5540 — yesterday’s key breakout level
Same for NQ — a failed breakout may bring us back to 19,000
Market Cues
First 15–30 minutes will be key — volume and structure matter more than the open print
VWAP hold vs. breakdown could signal the move
Keep an eye on sector strength (tech leading or lagging?)
Mindset Tip
New month. Clean slate.
The last few weeks have been filled with noise — from tariffs to rate expectations to earnings. Don’t bring April's emotions into May.
Start fresh. Let price speak.
Final Thought
Big gaps can be gifts or traps — depending on your reaction.
Let price confirm. Don’t chase.
We’ve mapped the structure. You now have the edge.
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Let’s trade smart today.
— Shawn
– Shawn
Disclosure
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions
Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Thank you, Shawn, for the morning overview. This is helpful to stay focused on key levels. I was watching ES, which was choppy between the 5630-5650 levels, and broke that zone, only to later return to it.
Thank you Shawn. Love the Scenarios section. Can you also put the SPY key level in the morning context?