Grinding or Breaking? ES Tests Patience After CPI Pop
The market is crawling higher — but can it actually break free, or is it just burning fuel?
After this morning’s CPI release, ES spiked sharply toward the 5880 resistance zone — but once again failed to follow through. That brief burst quickly faded, and the market returned to its familiar grind. The overall structure remains bullish, but momentum has clearly slowed. The key now is whether we can finally break above this stubborn range or revert to the lower end once again.
We’re at a decision point: bulls need to reclaim and hold above 5880 to confirm continuation, while a drop below 5830 could invite weakness down toward 5800.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch
ES: 5830 (support), 5880 (resistance)
SPY: 580.50 (support), 584.20 (resistance)
Bullish Scenario
A clean breakout above 5880 with volume could fuel a push to 5905 or higher. Watch for tech leadership and volatility compression to support the move.
🔻 Bearish Scenario
If ES breaks down below 5830 and loses the VWAP zone, downside could accelerate toward 5800. Failed bounces or weak tape in NQ under 20,600 would confirm it.
Mindset Tip of the Day
Don’t chase slow grind breakouts. Let the market prove its strength — or be ready to fade the failure with structure.
Live Trade Recap – CPI Reaction Setup (Pre-Market Execution)
We executed a clean CPI reaction trade in the pre-market session, capitalizing on the spike before it lost momentum.
Initial Entry: 5869.75
Add: 5873.50
Reduce near highs: 5875.50
Partial exits on the way down, with reentry and managed exit at 5865.75 and 5862.50
This was a textbook example of how we scale in with structure, take partials with intent, and manage exits proactively once momentum shifts
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Regards
Shawn
Disclosure
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions
Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.