April 28th Market Context & Game Plan
Tight Range, Major Data Ahead
Morning Update:
SPY and QQQ are slightly down from Friday’s highs.
VIX has dropped to around 25 — a huge improvement from the peak near 52.
UVXY has collapsed to 29 — liquidity is coming back, fear is draining.
Big Picture:
The market remains elevated and near the top of the April rally range.
Despite tariff standstill headlines, price action has refused to meaningfully roll over.
Traders appear to be ignoring the noise — for now — and focusing purely on liquidity and earnings strength.
Important Note:
This week is LOADED with key economic data:
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday: GDP Advance, Personal Income, PCE Inflation, Chicago PMI
Thursday: ISM Manufacturing Index, Initial Claims
Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
⚡ Tight range and chop are likely until major catalysts hit later in the week.
Key Levels to Watch
✅ SPY:
550 key pivot.
Above = bullish continuation toward 555+.
Below = likely drift back toward 540.
✅ ES:
5550 Friday high = crucial ceiling.
5450–5500 = high-probability chop zone today.
✅ QQQ:
452 resistance.
446–448 remains critical support zone.
✅ NQ:
19400+ holds bulls in charge.
Below 19100 = short-term caution.
Today's Scenarios
Scenario 1: Choppy Opening, Fade Afternoon
If ES stays between 5480–5520 without major headlines, expect chop.
Fades toward VWAP or pre-market range edges may offer tight-risk trades.
Scenario 2: Breakout Over Friday High
Clear break and hold over 5550 (ES) could fuel momentum.
Watch liquidity and volume — needs real buying, not just algos.
Scenario 3: Failure to Hold Support
If SPY cracks below 540 intraday, risk opens up toward 533.
Not expected unless major negative headline drops unexpectedly.
Mindset Tip
This is NOT the time to assume every dip will be bought.
Tight ranges chop accounts apart if you overtrade.
Focus on clean setups, wait for confirmation — protect your mental capital.
Final Word
We’ve come a long way off the panic lows.
Liquidity is flowing back.
Fear is draining.
BUT — we’re still trading inside key range pivots.
Friday High and Thursday High ranges are critical.
Stay patient.
Stay tactical.
Major catalysts are coming — the move will come. Be ready, not reckless.
See the full week's major data calendar attached.
This is a “get ready, not heavy” type of Monday.
Disclosure
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions
Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.