April 25 – Market Context & Game Plan
Friday Morning | 8:30 AM EST
We’re heading into the final trading day of the week with momentum still on the bulls’ side — and some of the most powerful upside moves we’ve seen in recent history.
Here’s the breakdown:
📈 SPY is now up 13.47% off the recent low
📈 QQQ (Triple Q) is up a staggering 16%
📉 Despite the rally, SPY is still down 10.8% from the highs — and we’re sitting at a pivotal decision point
This week’s rally — triggered by a mix of tariff relief comments, soft policy stance, and dip-buying frenzy — has recovered much of the April drawdown. But now comes the question:
Does the market reclaim the "pause day" high and build on this strength — or are we heading into exhaustion and pullback?
Where We Are Now
ES is trading around 5500
NQ is sitting near 19,250
These levels are just below the key breakout levels formed on the big "10% relief rally" day, when the White House paused tariff escalation.
If these levels hold — particularly above 5500 on ES — we could be looking at another push toward the recent highs.
But if we fail to hold this range, it may signal a pause, consolidation, or even a fade back into lower support.
Key Levels in Play
SPY / ES:
🔺 5500+ = Momentum continuation. Watch for a squeeze above yesterday’s range.
⚠️ 5450–5500 = Choppy consolidation zone. This was the top end of the last two days’ opening range.
🔻 5400 = Breakdown zone. Below here, downside targets open.
QQQ / NQ:
🔺 19,300–19,450 = Breakout area from the pause day
⚠️ 19,100–19,250 = Current support. Watch price action here closely.
🔻 18,900–19,000 = If lost, signals possible pullback
Scenarios to Prepare For
Scenario 1: Momentum Builds (Bullish Continuation)
Price holds above ES 5500 / NQ 19,250
Look for early tight consolidation → breakout setups
Potential to test pause-day highs and create a new leg higher
Scenario 2: Consolidation Day (Chop Zone)
Inside action between ES 5450–5500 / NQ 19,100–19,250
Best to stay patient, wait for range breakouts or VWAP pivots
Avoid overtrading low-probability midday moves
Scenario 3: Pullback to Support
Loss of 5500 / 19,250 early in the session
Could trigger a drop toward ES 5400 / NQ 19,000
Watch for reversal signals near those levels for potential fade-to-long setups
Check out video version
Final Thought
You don’t get 13%+ rallies in a straight line forever.
Today is all about confirmation.
Can the market hold these reclaimed zones and push higher — or is this where it pauses, reloads, or rejects?
We’ll let price tell the story. All we need to do is come prepared.
—Shawn
Disclosure
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions
Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.