Market Context & Game Plan – Monday, April 21st
We head into Monday with no major economic data on the calendar — but that doesn't mean it's a quiet session ahead.
This weekend, traders were hopeful for a potential breakthrough in negotiations with Japan. Instead, we got more retaliatory headlines, both from the U.S. administration and China. That tone is weighing heavily on sentiment this morning.
Big Picture Context
We’re now trading just below Friday’s low, and that puts us right in front of key inflection zones:
SPY: Watching 511 or 5150
QQQ: Watching 433 or 18000
These levels were carved out on April 10th, which was Day 2 of the sharp 10% rally sparked by the White House’s temporary tariff pause. That makes today a crucial test: is this pullback just a healthy correction — or a rejection that brings us back toward the lows?
Key Levels to Watch
SPY: 511 → if this level breaks, 505 and 498 become the next downside magnets
QQQ: 433 → if buyers step in, this could become a major bounce zone; otherwise, watch 426 and 419
ES: Needs to reclaim above 5240 to regain structure
NQ: Below 18000, momentum shifts clearly to the downside
Game Plan for Today
Scenario 1: Pullback Support Holds (Reversal Long Opportunity)
If price holds and stabilizes at SPY 511 / QQQ 433
Watch for higher low formations intraday
Long setups possible with tight stops under Friday’s low
Scenario 2: Breakdown and Continuation Lower
If price breaks Friday’s low and fails to reclaim it
Watch for continued pressure toward April 3rd and April 5th support levels
Focus on short setups in weak sectors like tech and industrials
Scenario 3: Choppy Mid-Zone
If we hover near these levels all day without volume
Consider reducing size, waiting for either side to show strength
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Today’s Focus
For me, it’s all about how the market behaves at QQQ 433.
If buyers step up — we could see a meaningful bounce.
If not — it’s a signal the April 10th rally may have been short-lived.
Let’s stay nimble and let price show its hand.
Shawn
Disclosure
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions
Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.