Market Game Plan: Bounce or Fakeout?
April 17th Market Context and Game Plan
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Yesterday was a bloodbath. After Fed Chair Powell’s unexpected comments tying tariff actions to longer-term inflation outlooks, the market dropped sharply — SPY and QQQ both ended the day down more than 2%. Tech was hit especially hard as the rate narrative got intertwined with the trade war fears.
But as always, the overnight session gave us a bit of a breather.
Overnight Recap (ONH Session)
ES: Attempted a green open overnight but failed to hold gains
NQ: Same bounce-and-fade structure as ES
Employment data added early volatility this morning
Trump is set to speak at 1:00 PM ET — adding more headline risk to an already jittery market
Big Picture Takeaways
Market still holding above yesterday's low, but not confidently
High volatility continues with UVXY > 35 and VIX > 30
No clear follow-through from the overnight bounce
Market remains headline-driven — anything can flip sentiment
Key Levels to Watch
5350 (ES) is the level to beat — failed overnight, still holding as intraday resistance
If we reclaim 5350 with volume, bulls might attempt a push toward 5375
If 5350 fails to reclaim, expect a grind back toward 5300
Below 5300, sellers can take control again
Scenarios to Plan For
Scenario 1: Range reclaim breakout
Market reclaims 5350
Look for strength confirmation above VWAP and yesterday's open
Potential upside targets: 5375 → 5395
Scenario 2: Failed reclaim / Fade
Price gets rejected at 5350 again
Short on weakness, especially below 5320
Retest of 5300 and possibly 5285 in play
Scenario 3: Chop & wait
Market holds within a narrow range
Consider sitting tight until Trump’s 1 PM speech for better direction
Mindset for Today
We're still in a high-volatility news-driven market, and there’s no consistent trend yet. Until the structure strengthens, focus on execution, not prediction. Trade smaller, stay nimble, and be okay with missing the first move.
— Shawn
Disclosure
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions
Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.