Whiplash Mode: Tariff Shock vs. Reversal Hope
Market Context and Game Plan April 16
Yesterday felt calm... until it wasn’t.
Late in the session, we got news that the White House is planning new restrictions on NVIDIA’s chip sales to China — and the market reacted instantly. NVDA tanked, QQQ dropped nearly 2%, and futures sold off aggressively.
But the chaos didn’t last long. Just as the selling accelerated, headlines started circulating about President Xi’s potential willingness to negotiate, and the market began to claw its way back. It’s a reminder of the times we’re in — where every news headline acts like a volatility switch, swinging sentiment from panic to euphoria in minutes.
Let’s break it down and build a plan.
While SPY and QQQ remain in red, futures are showing some resilience — with both ES and NQ holding above VWAP and recovering pre-market.
Big Picture Takeaways
NVIDIA is the center of the storm. The chip news hit growth-heavy names hard, dragging tech broadly. NVDA has lost nearly 15% in the last few sessions alone.
But bulls aren’t out yet. ES and NQ bounced overnight and are currently trading near the top of yesterday’s breakdown zone.
Volatility remains elevated. UVXY back near 35. We’re not in a calm market, so size and patience matter.
🔍 Structure Overview
Looking at the 4-hour and 65-minute ES charts:
We're still printing higher lows (barely), and the rising trend from April 9th is technically intact.
5386 is the VWAP pivot, and 5420-25 is a big decision zone overhead.
On the downside, 5370 and 5340 are key. A break below these suggests a possible retrace to 5280 or lower.
Game Plan Scenarios
🟢 Scenario 1: Bounce Continuation
If ES holds 5400+ and builds volume through 5425:
Look for a push back to 5450-5470 zone.
Ideal entry is on a retest of 5400 VWAP with tight risk.
🔴 Scenario 2: Rejection + Retest
If the upside move fails at 5425 or pre-market highs:
Watch for breakdown under 5370.
This opens room toward 5340, with aggressive selling possible back to 5280.
⚠️ Side Note:
Stay cautious around NVIDIA, TSLA, and tech-heavy names — they are leading volatility today.
Final Thoughts
There’s a lot of headline noise, but as traders, we don’t trade headlines — we trade price.
So far, the market hasn’t fully broken down… and it hasn’t fully reclaimed strength either. That’s a recipe for choppiness.
Respect the levels. Wait for confirmation. Let price lead.
Shawn
Disclosure
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions
Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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