Will the Gap Hold? Market Awaits Confirmation After Relief Rally
Market Context & Game Plan – April 24th
Markets are in a wait-and-see mode this morning after two big days of rally — driven by easing tariff rhetoric from President Trump. While the softer tone toward China has calmed some nerves, the question remains: Is this just a bounce, or are we building for continuation?
Let’s break it down.
What’s Driving This Move?
After tough talk and escalating tariff threats, Trump appears to be pivoting slightly, hinting at a more measured approach on China.
That’s triggered a relief rally, with the ES climbing from 5060 to 5460 in just two days — a massive 400-point surge.
Now, the momentum is cooling, and we’re sitting near the bottom of yesterday’s range, looking for the next move.
ES (S&P Futures) Levels to Watch:
5378 → Key inflection. If we lose this, a full gap close to 5330 is likely.
5330 → Gap fill target; could act as short-term support.
5380–5500 → This was the range from yesterday. If we hold above 5378, we could revisit the top of the range.
Game Plan for ES:
Below 5378 → Look for weakness into 5330.
Holding 5380 → Momentum buyers may try to reclaim 5420/5450.
Above 5450 → Opens the door for continuation toward 5500+.
NQ (Nasdaq Futures) Levels to Watch:
18750 → Today’s pre-market range midpoint and yesterday’s close.
18700 → Major support. Lose this, and gap fill to 18350 comes into play.
19000 → Overhead resistance; a break above here brings 19200 back into view.
Game Plan for NQ:
Watch 18700 closely. A bounce here can spark a move back to 19000.
Break and close below 18700 → Likely headed for 18350 gap fill.
Summary
After a 2-day, 400-point ES rally, today is about validation. Will buyers defend support zones, or will we retrace and shake out weak hands?
You don’t need to predict — just prepare. Watch your levels. Respect the structure. Trade the reaction.
—Shawn
Disclosure
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions
Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.