Market Recap – March 18, 2025
Momentum Fades: A Failed Follow-Through & More Weakness
Today was a disappointing session for the bulls—the market failed to sustain yesterday’s follow-through and instead continued its downward momentum.
ES rejected the 5700 level and sold off sharply, failing to hold any meaningful bounce.
NQ remained weak, with no clear sign of strength from tech stocks.
VIX continued rising, indicating growing uncertainty ahead of the FOMC decision tomorrow.
Key Observations from Today's Session
Extreme Weakness
The market didn't provide many trading opportunities—sell-offs were sharp and quick, and any bounces lacked conviction.
No real follow-through to the upside—a sign that sellers remain in control.
FOMC Tomorrow – What’s Next?
The market is waiting for clarity from the FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference.
Will the Fed cut rates, hold steady, or signal future policy moves? Traders need to be prepared for increased volatility tomorrow.
Trading Recap: Small Loss, No Follow-Through
❌ I took a trade today, but the lack of momentum and weak price action led to a small loss. Given the market conditions, I decided to step aside and wait for a clearer setup.
Lesson of the Day:
👉 Sometimes, the best trade is no trade. If the market isn’t giving you good setups, there’s no reason to force trades.
Looking Ahead: How Will the Market React to FOMC?
Scenario 1 – Bullish Reaction: If the Fed cuts rates or provides a dovish outlook, we could see a strong bounce and short covering.
Scenario 2 – Bearish Reaction: If the Fed holds steady and signals no urgency for cuts, we could see further downside and panic selling.
Patience is key. Right now, we need to wait and see how the market behaves post-FOMC before making any aggressive trades.
Final Thoughts
Market is extremely weak—no point in forcing trades.
All eyes on the Fed tomorrow—expect volatility.
Risk management is key—don’t trade just to trade.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Risk Disclosure:
Futures, foreign currency, and options trading involve substantial risk and are not appropriate for everyone. Please consider your risk tolerance carefully before engaging in these markets.