Market Game Plan and Context – March 18, 2025 (8:00 AM EST)
March 18, 2025
Recap of Yesterday’s Market Action
The market had a strong follow-through day, as ES tested the 5700 level before pulling back slightly. While this was an encouraging sign for bulls, the FOMC decision tomorrow looms large, keeping volatility elevated.
ES held above 5600 and attempted to break 5700.
NQ continued to show resilience but failed to break out significantly.
VIX remains relatively stable, but its movement today will be crucial.
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Current Market Situation – Pre-Market Levels
📊 Futures Overview (8:00 AM EST):
ES → 5,668.5 (+0.14%)
SPY → 565.91 (-0.22%)
QQQ → 481.05 (-0.36%)
NQ → 19,756 (+0.12%)
VIX → 20.94 (+2.1%)
🚨 Notable Stocks:
NVDA → 119.39 (-0.12%)
TSLA → 231.75 (-2.6%) – Facing selling pressure
BABA → 147.2 (-0.25%)
The slight dip in SPY and QQQ suggests some hesitation in the market ahead of the FOMC meeting, with VIX rising 2.1%, indicating increasing uncertainty.
Key Questions Heading into the Session
🔹 Can ES break and hold 5700?
🔹 Is today’s dip a healthy pullback, or a signal of more downside?
🔹 Will traders start pricing in tomorrow’s FOMC decision early?
Key Levels to Watch
ES (S&P 500 Futures)
Resistance: 5700 – A breakout here could fuel bullish momentum.
Support: 5660 – If lost, expect a move toward 5625.
NQ (Nasdaq Futures)
Resistance: 19,800 – Needs to hold above this for a bullish move.
Support: 19,600 – Key level to hold for bulls.
VIX (Volatility Index)
Above 21: Market may face increased selling pressure.
Below 19: Would suggest a stabilizing market.
Potential Trading Scenarios for Today
🟢 Bullish Case (Breakout Setup):
If ES holds 5660 and moves past 5700, we could see a continuation rally toward 5750+ before the FOMC decision.
NVDA and TSLA need to stabilize after recent weakness for a broader market move up.
🔴 Bearish Case (Breakdown Setup):
If SPY and QQQ fail to hold support levels and VIX spikes above 22, we could see selling accelerate.
TSLA’s weakness could continue, dragging other tech stocks lower.
FOMC Meeting – The Big Catalyst Tomorrow
💡 Reminder: The FOMC decision is set for Wednesday, and market reaction will be key.
A rate cut could spark a rally—or signal deeper economic concerns.
If the Fed holds steady, it could suggest they are not yet convinced of economic weakness.
Expect positioning and volatility to increase as we approach tomorrow’s announcement.
Final Thoughts
📌 The market is still bullish, but today’s session could be range-bound as traders wait for the FOMC.
📌 Watch 5700 on ES and 19,800 on NQ for a potential breakout.
📌 Volatility is rising—trade cautiously and be prepared for sharp intraday moves.