Market Context & Game Plan – April 15
Morning Snapshot
As we begin the session, here’s a quick look at the morning numbers:
ES: -0.31%
NQ: -0.20%
SPY: -0.43%
QQQ: -0.37%
IWM: -0.63%
UVXY: +3.2% (currently around 34)
🧭 Big Picture Takeaways
Volatility Compression:
UVXY has pulled back from a panic high of 52 to around 32 — still elevated, but clearly moderating. This suggests that extreme fear is easing, though it hasn't fully disappeared.
Range Holding:
Despite the ongoing tariff headlines, the market remains above key support levels and is still trading within the post–April 9th breakout range. Price hasn’t yet rejected the bullish move — it's consolidating.
Until we see either a breakout or breakdown from this consolidation, the short-term bias remains neutral with a bullish lean.
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EMA Watch
Price is still above the 5/9 EMA, maintaining short-term trend structure.
On the daily chart of SPY, we’re seeing signs of a potential death cross, with the 20/50-day EMAs starting to roll over — a caution flag.
The 21 EMA is acting as overhead resistance. A clean reclaim of that level is needed to support a continued bullish case.
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Is This a Pause — or a Breakdown Brewing?
One key question:
Has the market stopped reacting to tariff headlines as negative catalysts?
We've seen multiple rounds of tariff threats and adjustments, yet prices haven’t broken significantly lower. This may suggest that markets are now pricing in a negotiation phase, not the final outcome.
The current consolidation could be a sign that the market is digesting these headlines, rather than panicking from them.
Key Levels to Watch
SPY must reclaim 545+ to invalidate the bear case and break out of its recent consolidation range.
The April 10th and 11th lows (both open and close levels) are critical. If these break with volume, we could see a deeper retracement.
NQ/ES show a four-day flag forming — upside remains possible if we get breakout confirmation.
Game Plan
Scenario 1: Breakout Play
Watch the pre-market high (ES ~5440). If we break this level with strong volume and hold, look for long entries on the backtest of the prior day’s close.
Scenario 2: Rejection and Key Support Test
If the breakout fails, look for downside setups below 5400. A decisive break under this level could bring in selling momentum
Disclosure
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions
Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.