Market Context: 3-Day Snapshot That Sets Up Today’s Move
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What FOMC, geopolitics, and crude oil are telling us right now
Over the past three trading days, we’ve seen a powerful shift in market sentiment—driven by a mix of Fed policy, geopolitical tension, and commodity reaction. Here's a quick breakdown of how we got here and why today matters:
📉 June 18 – FOMC Sparks the Drop
The market approached recent highs heading into the June 18 FOMC decision. Expectations were mixed, but the post-announcement reaction was clear: sellers took control. We saw a sharp reversal from the highs as the Fed’s tone leaned cautious, triggering uncertainty and sending ES and NQ lower.
🚫 June 19 – Holiday + Global Tensions
While U.S. markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday, global risk remained elevated. Headlines around Middle East tensions and oil supply disruptions kept traders on edge. Futures action reflected this, with continued weakness and no real relief rally in sight.
🌅 June 20 – Risk Subsides, Bulls Return
Today, that tone is shifting.
Crude oil is pulling back, signaling some easing in geopolitical fears.
ES and NQ are curling back upward, slowly recovering ground lost earlier this week.
We are now approaching key resistance levels from June 17 and 18.
⚠️ What to Watch Now
This is where the real decision point begins.
A breakout above the June highs could reignite bullish momentum and open the door to new highs.
A failure or rejection at those levels may confirm short-term exhaustion—and signal that sellers still have control.
🎯 Final Take
Let the price action lead. This is a market that’s recalibrating after macro-driven moves. Whether it’s a breakout or a trap depends entirely on how we respond at these inflection points.
Patience > Prediction.