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Live Trade Analysis – March 14th (Breakout & Failure Case Study)
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Live Trade Analysis – March 14th (Breakout & Failure Case Study)

Trade execution, key observations and lesson learned

Shawn, CPA, Founder STC's avatar
Shawn, CPA, Founder STC
Mar 14, 2025
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Live Trade Analysis – March 14th (Breakout & Failure Case Study)
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Trade Context & Initial Setup

On Friday, March 14th, after four consecutive red weeks, the market showed signs of a potential relief bounce as EVIX was dropping. Both SPY (+0.92%) and QQQ (+1.92%) were up, indicating bullish sentiment, but NQ futures lagged at just +0.15%. This created a cautious but opportunistic environment for a possible breakout trade.

Key Pre-Market Observations:

  • NQ was trading near pre-market highs and the R4 pivot level.

  • ES was below pre-market low, meaning it was lagging slightly.

  • A significant buy injection at 7 AM had supported price at the same level earlier.

  • The market was consolidating rather than selling off, a potential sign of coiling momentum.


1. Trade Execution: Long on NQ 19490 Breakout Attempt

  • Reasoning for Entry:

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