Grinding Into FOMC: Breakout Setup or Just Noise?
ES and NQ are pressing major resistance levels — but with FOMC ahead, expect traps and fakeouts.
Market Context – May 28, 2025
The market is grinding higher again this morning, continuing the bullish tone from yesterday’s session. ES is holding the critical 5940 level, with a potential push toward 5976 and even 6000 if the breakout confirms. NQ is hovering near 21,517, just shy of breakout territory and close to all-time highs.
But here’s the catch: today is FOMC Day. That means we’re likely to see choppy, low-conviction moves until the 2:00 PM ET statement and press conference. The market has a history of head fakes and erratic volatility around FOMC, even in trending environments.
So while the structure remains bullish, this is a day to manage risk tightly and avoid front-running any breakout. Let the market show its hand after the announcement.
Key Levels to Watch
ES: 5940 (support), 5950 → 5976 / 6000 (resistance)
NQ: 21,350 (support), 21,517 / 21,600 (resistance)
Bullish Scenario
Hold above 5940 with a clean break over 5950 post-FOMC could fuel a squeeze into 5976+. NQ must clear 21,517 to trigger breakout momentum. Wait for confirmation on volume and follow-through.
Bearish Scenario
A rejection from 5950 and failure to hold 5940 may return us to the 5900–5940 range. FOMC volatility could trigger sharp reversals — don’t chase early weakness or strength.
Mindset Tip of the Day
On FOMC days, your edge is patience. Let others react to headlines — wait for structure, and don’t trade noise.
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