Relief Rally: Holding Steady or Just Delayed Reaction? [Follow-Up]
Last week, I published Relief Rally or False Start? — where we explored whether the explosive bounce off multi-day lows was the beginning of a bigger move or just another bear market trap.
Tonight, the market might be tipping its hand.
It’s 9:15 PM EST and futures are green across the board. NASDAQ is up 1.05%, ES is up 0.67%, and most importantly, the structure is intact: higher lows since Thursday remain unbroken.
In a market this headline-sensitive, price action is the purest signal — and so far, it’s leaning constructive.
What’s Working
Despite the tariff-driven chaos, there's a key technical development playing out:
Thursday’s lows are holding firm
We’re still above the key April 6–8 swing tops
The market is showing signs of digestion instead of panic — and that’s a subtle, but important, shift
That said, volatility hasn’t vanished. The environment remains headline-driven, so context + discipline are still your edge.
Game Plan for Monday
Heading into the new week:
Bulls want to see continuation through overnight highs and a clean reclaim of VWAP zones
Bears will look to fade into key resistance around Friday’s highs if momentum stalls
Watch the open — the first 30 minutes may be noisy, but will tell us everything about follow-through vs. fade
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Disclosure
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions
Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.