FOMC Day • Structure Holding • But Volatility Awaits
May 7th Market Context & Game Plan: Calm Before the Storm?
Today’s session is laced with anticipation. It’s FOMC Day, and while the headlines haven’t shifted, the market continues to coil tightly in its recent range — ES dancing around 5640–5680 and NQ hovering between 19,900–20,100.
What’s striking? Despite back-to-back selloffs and rallies, the structure hasn’t broken. We’re still sitting above key demand zones, and intraday volatility has been contained… for now.
But that may change in hours, not days.
Context Recap
ES is down -0.24%, still parked around 5645
NQ lost -0.41%, holding 19,923
VXX & UVXY are both dropping, hinting at easing volatility
AAPL, NVDA, IWM all green — showing relative strength
Most importantly, we’re seeing a textbook “volatility compression” setup — often a prelude to an explosive directional move.
What’s in Play Today
Scenario A: Bullish Reaction
If ES clears 5680 decisively, we could test 5725–5750, and eventually the highs near 5785. For NQ, 20,200 is the key breakout level.
Scenario B: FOMC Fade
If we see a spike-and-fail around the 2:00–2:30PM window, look for 5590–5560 support on ES to come back into play.
Your job? Avoid bias. React to structure.
Mindset Tip
FOMC days can trap early traders. Let the market tip its hand. Don’t assume. Wait for confirmation, volume, and resolution.
Blueprint in Action
Days like this are why we built the Smart Trader’s Blueprint: to prepare for volatility, avoid emotional reactions, and execute with structure.
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Disclosure
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions
Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.