ES Market Structure: FOMC Day Setup
Compression. Coiling. Decision point. What comes next will be decisive.
We’re watching tight, stacked consolidations form on the ES—a pattern that’s been repeating session after session like clockwork.
Each leg has followed the same rhythm:
📈 Push higher → Consolidate → Push higher again.
Think of it as a ladder-style market structure—each rung building on the last. The daily chart remains bullish, reflecting strength and controlled trend continuation. But zoom in to the 20-minute or 30-minute charts, and the picture starts to shift.
🔍 What Makes Today Different?
Today is FOMC Day.
And that means this tight range is ready to break—but the direction depends on what the Fed delivers.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
If the Fed signals dovish intent or confirms market expectations, we could see another breakout leg from this structure. A clean break above 6060 could trigger a move toward all-time highs.
Watch for higher lows holding into the decision.
Break above 6020, then 6060, with volume = breakout confirmation.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
If rate policy or the dot plot shifts hawkish—or if the market simply reacts poorly—we may see a sharp unwind of this structure. A break below 6000, especially on volume, could lead to:
Retest of 5960 → potential extension toward 5915
Breakdown of lower-high structure → shift in control to sellers
Technical Clue: Lower Highs
On the short-term charts, we’re seeing lower highs begin to stack. This indicates:
Buyer fatigue
Sellers stepping in earlier
Bearish momentum building under the surface
This tension is what makes today’s event pivotal. We’re not just at a news catalyst—we’re at the edge of structural compression.
Key Takeaway
Let the market show its hand.
This coiled structure will break—either up or down. The first reaction may be noise, but the second leg post-FOMC usually sets the tone.
Don't guess. Let levels guide your execution.
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Shawn