Chaos, Rebounds & No Answers: What Monday’s Open Could Look Like
Market Context and Game Plan April 7, 2025
Well… here we are.
After one of the most intense weekend sentiment resets we’ve seen in a while, the Sunday overnight session came in hot — really hot.
Futures opened in full panic mode, with ES dropping more than 5%, UVXY spiking to nearly 49, and traders everywhere asking: “Is this 1987 again?”
Now fast forward to Monday morning:
Things have calmed… but not settled.
SPY and QQQ are still down ~2.8%
ES has bounced +.8% off the lows
NQ reclaimed some footing, up +1.2%
UVXY has cooled back under 46 and under VWAP
That sounds better than it felt 12 hours ago — but don’t mistake this for stability.
The real issue?
We still have no deal. No rollback. No policy clarity.
Just retaliation headlines from the EU and China — and a market holding its breath.
🧱 Join the April Mentoring Challenge
We're kicking off live group mentoring this week. Twice weekly sessions (Mon/Wed), real-time market context, and a full futures challenge using a $10,000 account. If you’ve ever felt lost trading solo, this is your chance to plug into a proven framework.
📆 Try a single class for $29.99 📅 Full 3-month plan: $400 (36 classes total) 🔥 Normally $199/mo — this is your chance to commit.
Come see how we’re turning tight ranges and tough markets into real confidence.
📘 Substack: Smart Trader’s Guide
📺 YouTube: AddZeros
📚 Group Class Info: https://addzerosdaytrader.substack.com/p/mastering-market-context
So what now? Here are three possible paths:
1. “The Calm Holds”
If ES can hold 4930, and NQ can stabilize above 16750, we might see a technical bounce continue.
Targets: ES → 5000, then 5100 if things calm
NQ → 17200–17500 range
But remember, this is more like “bounce while scared” than a confident rally.
2. “Gap Fill & Fade”
If the overnight recovery gets faded into the open, watch closely.
Loss of ES 4930 or NQ 16750 puts us back on the defensive
Could trigger fast unwinds back to overnight lows
3. “The Surprise”
Tariff reversal headlines. Negotiation leaks. If anything unexpected hits the wire from D.C., we could flip the script fast.
That would likely fuel a powerful short squeeze — but timing it? That’s the tricky part.
A Word of Caution
This is still a news-driven market, not a chart-driven one. The candles are oversized, the gaps are aggressive, and conviction is fragile.
It’s not about predicting — it’s about reacting well and protecting capital when things are unclear.
Today might not be the day to chase.
Let the first 30–60 minutes shape the story. You don’t get extra points for being early in a warzone.
Disclosure:
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk, and it is important to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions
Trading futures, stocks, and options involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.